Every football weekend, it happens again. You open your betting app, scroll past the usual suspects, and your eyes land on that price. The scrappy underdog. The team with the budget smaller than the favorite’s striker’s haircut bill. The odds look generous. Almost flirtatious. You pause and think: “Why not?”
Congratulations. You’ve just stepped into one of betting’s oldest traps.
Underdogs are overbet. Favorites are misunderstood. And the reason has less to do with football knowledge and more to do with the strange ways our brains are wired.
Let’s unpack it. Slowly. Honestly. With a bit of humor, because if we don’t laugh, we’ll cry.
The Romance of the Underdog
Humans love stories. Not spreadsheets.
From Rocky Balboa to Leicester City’s title run, the underdog narrative is baked into our culture. We don’t just watch underdogs — we root for them. Betting markets know this. And they price it in.
When you bet on an underdog, you’re not just backing a team. You’re buying hope. You’re buying the dream of telling your friends, “I called it.” That emotional payoff feels bigger than the money itself.
Bookmakers understand this perfectly. They know recreational bettors gravitate toward long odds. So underdog prices are often shaded just enough to look juicy while quietly offering less value than they should.
It’s not a scam. It’s psychology.
Why Big Odds Feel So Right (But Usually Aren’t)
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: most bettors are terrible at understanding probability.
A team priced at 5.00 doesn’t feel like an 20% chance. It feels like “one good goal away from glory.” We overweight small probabilities and underweight boring realities. This is why lotteries exist and why underdogs attract money.
The math says the underdog loses most of the time. The heart says, “Yeah, but this time is different.”
It rarely is.
That doesn’t mean underdogs never have value. They do. But the public often bets them for the wrong reasons — vibes, narratives, gut feelings — rather than numbers.
Favorites: The Most Hated Word in Betting
Favorites have a branding problem.
They’re called “boring.” “Too short.” “Not worth it.” People hate backing a team at 1.50 because the payout feels underwhelming, even if the probability is solid.
This leads to a weird paradox. Favorites are often underbet by casual players. Especially strong favorites in ugly matches. Mid-table away wins. Defensive teams. No glamour. No drama.
But here’s the thing: bookmakers don’t just price favorites to win. They price them to attract balanced action. When public money floods underdogs, the favorite price can quietly drift into value territory.
You don’t see it because you’re busy chasing fireworks.
The Myth of “They Have to Win”
Another misunderstanding around favorites is the idea that “they have to win.”
No team has to win. Markets price probabilities, not destinies. When a favorite loses, bettors scream “rigged” or “fixed,” ignoring the fact that even a 70% favorite still loses 3 times out of 10.
Favorites aren’t broken. Expectations are.
Sharp bettors don’t ask, “Will this team win?” They ask, “Is the price wrong?” Sometimes the answer points to the favorite. Often quietly. Without drama.
The Middle of the Market Is Where Truth Hides
Right around here — yes, there — is where things get interesting.
Because this is also where bettors start drifting from football into other forms of betting and entertainment. Platforms that offer legit online games alongside sports markets understand something important: people don’t just want value, they want trust and structure.
That’s partly why some bettors mention platforms like 20Bet when talking about balanced betting experiences. Not because of flashy promises, but because having both sportsbook depth and “legit online games” in one place encourages smarter bankroll thinking.
A calmer mindset leads to better decisions. And better decisions mean fewer emotional underdog punts.
Underdogs Win Headlines, Favorites Win Seasons
Media coverage doesn’t help. When underdogs win, it’s news. When favorites win, it’s expected. This skews perception.
If you only remember the shock results, you start believing they happen all the time. They don’t.
Favorites grind out wins week after week. They don’t trend on social media, but they quietly dominate expected points, xG tables, and long-term returns.
Betting isn’t about being right once. It’s about being slightly right over and over again.
The Bookmaker’s Silent Smile
Every time a bettor says, “I don’t trust favorites,” a bookmaker smiles.
Not because favorites always win, but because mispricing happens where public bias lives. Underdogs soak up emotional money. Favorites absorb doubt.
This imbalance creates opportunity. Especially for bettors willing to look past odds length and focus on probability.
Some bettors using 20Bet talk about this exact shift — moving away from romantic bets and toward structured analysis. It’s not sexy. But it works more often than not.
So… Should You Stop Betting Underdogs?
No. That’s not the lesson.
The lesson is intent.
If you’re betting underdogs because the price feels good, you’re probably overpaying. If you’re betting favorites because the numbers say the price is wrong, you’re thinking like a pro.
The market doesn’t reward bravery. It rewards discipline.
Underdogs are not evil. Favorites are not safe. Both are misunderstood. But only one group is consistently mispriced by public emotion.
Betting isn’t about proving you’re smarter than everyone else. It’s about understanding why everyone else behaves the way they do.
Underdogs get love because they tell a good story. Favorites get ignored because they feel dull. The smart bettor listens to neither emotion nor ego.
They listen to price.
And the next time you’re tempted by that shiny underdog at 6.00, pause. Ask yourself a simple question:
Am I betting value — or am I betting hope?
Most of the time, the answer explains everything.